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Augsburg vs Leverkusen

Sat 12 Sep 2026, 13:30 UTC · Round 3 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Augsburg win: 31.8%

Draw: 29.7%

Leverkusen win: 38.5%

Predicted: Leverkusen

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 63.1%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 64.6%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.08

More corners: Leverkusen (38.4% home / 61.6% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Leverkusen

Yes

Probability Leverkusen wins or draws: 68.2%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (38.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (63.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (65.0% model probability) High

Corners Leverkusen (more corners) (62.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Leverkusen win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (68.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.