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Augsburg vs M'gladbach

Tue 12 Jan 2027, 00:00 UTC · Round 16 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Augsburg win: 45.9%

Draw: 24.7%

M'gladbach win: 29.4%

Predicted: Augsburg

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 53.9%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 51.4%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.93

More corners: Augsburg (61.7% home / 38.3% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Augsburg

Yes

Probability Augsburg wins or draws: 60.9%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Augsburg Clearest lean of the available outcomes (46% vs next-best 29%). (46.0% model probability) Medium

Corners Augsburg (more corners) (62.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Augsburg win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (61.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.