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Augsburg vs Paderborn

Fri 18 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC · Round 14 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Augsburg win: 49.4%

Draw: 25.7%

Paderborn win: 25.0%

Predicted: Augsburg

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 57.1%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 50.6%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.01

More corners: Augsburg (62.7% home / 37.3% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Augsburg

Yes

Probability Augsburg wins or draws: 70.9%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Augsburg Clearest lean of the available outcomes (49% vs next-best 26%). (49.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (57.0% model probability) High

Corners Augsburg (more corners) (63.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Augsburg win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (71.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.