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Bayern Munich vs Union Berlin

Fri 18 Sep 2026, 18:30 UTC · Round 4 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Bayern Munich win: 64.2%

Draw: 17.4%

Union Berlin win: 18.5%

Predicted: Bayern Munich

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 59.1%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 69.2%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.12

More corners: Bayern Munich (66.2% home / 33.8% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Bayern Munich

Yes

Probability Bayern Munich wins or draws: 71.3%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Bayern Munich Clearest lean of the available outcomes (64% vs next-best 18%). (64.0% model probability) High

Both Teams to Score Yes (59.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (69.0% model probability) High

Corners Bayern Munich (more corners) (66.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Bayern Munich win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (71.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.