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Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburg

Sat 29 Aug 2026, 16:30 UTC · Round 1 · Data confidence: Low (promoted/new team)

Match Result (1X2)

Borussia Dortmund win: 46.7%

Draw: 23.8%

Hamburg win: 29.5%

Predicted: Borussia Dortmund

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 57.5%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 48.9%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.36

More corners: Borussia Dortmund (51.9% home / 48.1% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Borussia Dortmund

Yes

Probability Borussia Dortmund wins or draws: 63.7%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Borussia Dortmund Clearest lean of the available outcomes (47% vs next-best 30%). (47.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (57.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Borussia Dortmund win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (64.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.