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Borussia Dortmund vs Paderborn

Sat 12 Sep 2026, 13:30 UTC · Round 3 · Data confidence: Low (promoted/new team)

Match Result (1X2)

Borussia Dortmund win: 52.5%

Draw: 22.1%

Paderborn win: 25.3%

Predicted: Borussia Dortmund

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 54.5%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 54.6%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.51

More corners: Borussia Dortmund (52.7% home / 47.3% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Borussia Dortmund

Yes

Probability Borussia Dortmund wins or draws: 67.8%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Borussia Dortmund Clearest lean of the available outcomes (52% vs next-best 25%). (52.0% model probability) Medium

Favorite Avoids Defeat Borussia Dortmund win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (68.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.