← Back to fixtures

Borussia Dortmund vs Union Berlin

Fri 26 Feb 2027, 00:00 UTC · Round 23 · Data confidence: Low (promoted/new team)

Match Result (1X2)

Borussia Dortmund win: 42.5%

Draw: 25.1%

Union Berlin win: 32.4%

Predicted: Borussia Dortmund

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 59.7%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 56.8%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.34

More corners: Union Berlin (49.8% home / 50.2% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Borussia Dortmund

Yes

Probability Borussia Dortmund wins or draws: 65.1%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Borussia Dortmund Clearest lean of the available outcomes (42% vs next-best 32%). (42.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (60.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (57.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Borussia Dortmund win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (65.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.