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Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen

Fri 09 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC · Round 5 · Data confidence: Low (promoted/new team)

Match Result (1X2)

Borussia Dortmund win: 46.3%

Draw: 24.1%

Werder Bremen win: 29.5%

Predicted: Borussia Dortmund

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 56.6%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 52.3%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.24

More corners: Borussia Dortmund (53.0% home / 47.0% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Borussia Dortmund

Yes

Probability Borussia Dortmund wins or draws: 60.8%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Borussia Dortmund Clearest lean of the available outcomes (46% vs next-best 30%). (46.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (57.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Borussia Dortmund win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (61.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.