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Ein Frankfurt vs Freiburg

Sat 19 Sep 2026, 13:30 UTC · Round 4 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Ein Frankfurt win: 44.9%

Draw: 24.5%

Freiburg win: 30.6%

Predicted: Ein Frankfurt

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 57.7%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 58.8%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.66

More corners: Ein Frankfurt (62.3% home / 37.7% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Ein Frankfurt

Yes

Probability Ein Frankfurt wins or draws: 61.4%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Ein Frankfurt Clearest lean of the available outcomes (45% vs next-best 31%). (45.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (58.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (59.0% model probability) High

Corners Ein Frankfurt (more corners) (62.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Ein Frankfurt win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (61.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.