← Back to fixtures

FC Koln vs Augsburg

Fri 09 Apr 2027, 00:00 UTC · Round 29 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

FC Koln win: 39.0%

Draw: 26.6%

Augsburg win: 34.4%

Predicted: FC Koln

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 60.5%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 58.0%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.83

More corners: Augsburg (43.5% home / 56.5% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Augsburg

Yes

Probability Augsburg wins or draws: 63.3%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (39.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (60.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (58.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Augsburg win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (63.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.