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FC Koln vs Borussia Dortmund

Tue 12 Jan 2027, 00:00 UTC · Round 16 · Data confidence: Low (promoted/new team)

Match Result (1X2)

FC Koln win: 43.3%

Draw: 17.6%

Borussia Dortmund win: 39.1%

Predicted: FC Koln

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 50.5%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 56.9%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.44

More corners: Borussia Dortmund (38.1% home / 61.9% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Borussia Dortmund

Yes

Probability Borussia Dortmund wins or draws: 55.6%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (43.0% model probability) Low

Total Goals Over 2.5 (57.0% model probability) High

Corners Borussia Dortmund (more corners) (62.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Borussia Dortmund win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (56.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.