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FC Koln vs Hoffenheim

Sat 29 Aug 2026, 13:30 UTC · Round 1 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

FC Koln win: 32.0%

Draw: 26.4%

Hoffenheim win: 41.6%

Predicted: Hoffenheim

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 59.7%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 65.6%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.61

More corners: Hoffenheim (34.8% home / 65.2% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Hoffenheim

Yes

Probability Hoffenheim wins or draws: 64.8%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Hoffenheim Clearest lean of the available outcomes (42% vs next-best 32%). (42.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (60.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (66.0% model probability) High

Corners Hoffenheim (more corners) (65.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Hoffenheim win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (65.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.