← Back to fixtures

FC Koln vs Paderborn

Sat 22 May 2027, 13:30 UTC · Round 34 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

FC Koln win: 47.8%

Draw: 23.4%

Paderborn win: 28.7%

Predicted: FC Koln

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 55.4%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 55.6%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.05

More corners: FC Koln (54.6% home / 45.4% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: FC Koln

Yes

Probability FC Koln wins or draws: 65.9%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result FC Koln Clearest lean of the available outcomes (48% vs next-best 29%). (48.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (55.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (56.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat FC Koln win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (66.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.