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Freiburg vs Bayern Munich

Fri 23 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC · Round 7 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Freiburg win: 30.7%

Draw: 24.8%

Bayern Munich win: 44.5%

Predicted: Bayern Munich

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 66.1%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 71.1%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.35

More corners: Bayern Munich (27.8% home / 72.2% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Bayern Munich

Yes

Probability Bayern Munich wins or draws: 65.8%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Bayern Munich Clearest lean of the available outcomes (44% vs next-best 31%). (44.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (66.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (71.0% model probability) High

Corners Bayern Munich (more corners) (72.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Bayern Munich win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (66.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.