← Back to fixtures

Freiburg vs Hamburg

Tue 12 Jan 2027, 00:00 UTC · Round 16 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Freiburg win: 47.5%

Draw: 26.1%

Hamburg win: 26.4%

Predicted: Freiburg

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 60.5%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 54.0%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.74

More corners: Freiburg (59.0% home / 41.0% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Freiburg

Yes

Probability Freiburg wins or draws: 64.3%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Freiburg Clearest lean of the available outcomes (48% vs next-best 26%). (48.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (60.0% model probability) High

Corners Freiburg (more corners) (59.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Freiburg win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (64.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.