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Freiburg vs Leverkusen

Fri 26 Feb 2027, 00:00 UTC · Round 23 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Freiburg win: 36.4%

Draw: 27.9%

Leverkusen win: 35.7%

Predicted: Freiburg

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 64.7%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 69.6%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.88

More corners: Leverkusen (36.6% home / 63.4% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Leverkusen

Yes

Probability Leverkusen wins or draws: 63.2%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (36.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (65.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (70.0% model probability) High

Corners Leverkusen (more corners) (63.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Leverkusen win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (63.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.