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Freiburg vs M'gladbach

Sat 12 Sep 2026, 13:30 UTC · Round 3 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Freiburg win: 48.2%

Draw: 24.6%

M'gladbach win: 27.2%

Predicted: Freiburg

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 54.5%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 53.2%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.63

More corners: Freiburg (61.0% home / 39.0% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Freiburg

Yes

Probability Freiburg wins or draws: 60.2%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Freiburg Clearest lean of the available outcomes (48% vs next-best 27%). (48.0% model probability) Medium

Corners Freiburg (more corners) (61.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Freiburg win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (60.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.