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Freiburg vs Mainz

Fri 16 Apr 2027, 00:00 UTC · Round 30 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Freiburg win: 43.3%

Draw: 27.6%

Mainz win: 29.0%

Predicted: Freiburg

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 63.4%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 62.0%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.71

More corners: Freiburg (58.1% home / 41.9% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Freiburg

Yes

Probability Freiburg wins or draws: 61.9%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Freiburg Clearest lean of the available outcomes (43% vs next-best 29%). (43.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (63.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (62.0% model probability) High

Corners Freiburg (more corners) (58.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Freiburg win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (62.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.