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Freiburg vs RB Leipzig

Fri 27 Nov 2026, 00:00 UTC · Round 11 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Freiburg win: 37.5%

Draw: 26.6%

RB Leipzig win: 35.9%

Predicted: Freiburg

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 62.7%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 66.4%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.28

More corners: RB Leipzig (36.9% home / 63.1% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: RB Leipzig

Yes

Probability RB Leipzig wins or draws: 60.9%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (38.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (63.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (66.0% model probability) High

Corners RB Leipzig (more corners) (63.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat RB Leipzig win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (61.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.