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Freiburg vs Schalke 04

Fri 09 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC · Round 5 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Freiburg win: 52.7%

Draw: 23.6%

Schalke 04 win: 23.7%

Predicted: Freiburg

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 58.7%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 59.4%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.74

More corners: Freiburg (60.6% home / 39.4% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Freiburg

Yes

Probability Freiburg wins or draws: 73.2%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Freiburg Clearest lean of the available outcomes (53% vs next-best 24%). (53.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (59.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (59.0% model probability) High

Corners Freiburg (more corners) (61.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Freiburg win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (73.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.