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Hamburg vs FC Koln

Sat 19 Sep 2026, 13:30 UTC · Round 4 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Hamburg win: 41.2%

Draw: 27.9%

FC Koln win: 30.9%

Predicted: Hamburg

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 60.1%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 57.1%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.21

More corners: Hamburg (55.4% home / 44.6% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Hamburg

Yes

Probability Hamburg wins or draws: 62.3%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Hamburg Clearest lean of the available outcomes (41% vs next-best 31%). (41.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (60.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (57.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Hamburg win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (62.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.