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Hamburg vs Hoffenheim

Fri 19 Feb 2027, 00:00 UTC · Round 22 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Hamburg win: 31.6%

Draw: 29.0%

Hoffenheim win: 39.5%

Predicted: Hoffenheim

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 61.6%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 65.3%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.36

More corners: Hoffenheim (28.3% home / 71.7% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Hoffenheim

Yes

Probability Hoffenheim wins or draws: 67.0%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (40.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (62.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (65.0% model probability) High

Corners Hoffenheim (more corners) (72.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Hoffenheim win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (67.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.