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Hamburg vs Leverkusen

Fri 08 Jan 2027, 00:00 UTC · Round 15 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Hamburg win: 30.5%

Draw: 30.0%

Leverkusen win: 39.6%

Predicted: Leverkusen

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 62.7%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 68.9%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.54

More corners: Leverkusen (29.7% home / 70.3% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Leverkusen

Yes

Probability Leverkusen wins or draws: 70.6%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Leverkusen Clearest lean of the available outcomes (40% vs next-best 30%). (40.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (63.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (69.0% model probability) High

Corners Leverkusen (more corners) (70.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Leverkusen win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (71.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.