← Back to fixtures

Hamburg vs M'gladbach

Fri 06 Nov 2026, 00:00 UTC · Round 9 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Hamburg win: 43.9%

Draw: 26.2%

M'gladbach win: 29.9%

Predicted: Hamburg

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 55.8%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 53.4%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.39

More corners: Hamburg (56.9% home / 43.1% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: M'gladbach

Yes

Probability M'gladbach wins or draws: 62.7%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Hamburg Clearest lean of the available outcomes (44% vs next-best 30%). (44.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (56.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat M'gladbach win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (63.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.