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Hamburg vs Mainz

Sun 06 Sep 2026, 13:30 UTC · Round 2 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Hamburg win: 39.8%

Draw: 27.4%

Mainz win: 32.8%

Predicted: Hamburg

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 61.2%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 60.3%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.67

More corners: Mainz (41.3% home / 58.7% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Mainz

Yes

Probability Mainz wins or draws: 64.9%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (40.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (61.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (60.0% model probability) High

Corners Mainz (more corners) (59.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Mainz win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (65.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.