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Hamburg vs Schalke 04

Fri 11 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC · Round 13 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Hamburg win: 48.4%

Draw: 25.0%

Schalke 04 win: 26.6%

Predicted: Hamburg

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 59.0%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 55.5%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.74

More corners: Hamburg (56.1% home / 43.9% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Hamburg

Yes

Probability Hamburg wins or draws: 68.2%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Hamburg Clearest lean of the available outcomes (48% vs next-best 27%). (48.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (59.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (56.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Hamburg win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (68.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.