← Back to fixtures

Hoffenheim vs Bayern Munich

Fri 11 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC · Round 13 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Hoffenheim win: 34.8%

Draw: 24.3%

Bayern Munich win: 40.8%

Predicted: Bayern Munich

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 66.5%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 67.3%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.92

More corners: Bayern Munich (42.3% home / 57.7% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Bayern Munich

Yes

Probability Bayern Munich wins or draws: 59.5%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (41.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (66.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (67.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Bayern Munich win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (60.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.