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Hoffenheim vs Leverkusen

Fri 23 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC · Round 7 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Hoffenheim win: 40.1%

Draw: 27.4%

Leverkusen win: 32.5%

Predicted: Hoffenheim

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 65.5%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 68.7%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.21

More corners: Leverkusen (48.4% home / 51.6% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Leverkusen

Yes

Probability Leverkusen wins or draws: 59.2%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (40.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (66.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (69.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Leverkusen win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (59.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.