← Back to fixtures

Hoffenheim vs Paderborn

Fri 12 Feb 2027, 00:00 UTC · Round 21 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Hoffenheim win: 57.1%

Draw: 22.4%

Paderborn win: 20.4%

Predicted: Hoffenheim

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 59.4%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 59.8%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.21

More corners: Hoffenheim (61.4% home / 38.6% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Hoffenheim

Yes

Probability Hoffenheim wins or draws: 75.2%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Hoffenheim Clearest lean of the available outcomes (57% vs next-best 22%). (57.0% model probability) High

Both Teams to Score Yes (59.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (60.0% model probability) High

Corners Hoffenheim (more corners) (61.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Hoffenheim win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (75.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.