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Leverkusen vs Freiburg

Fri 16 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC · Round 6 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Leverkusen win: 59.7%

Draw: 21.0%

Freiburg win: 19.3%

Predicted: Leverkusen

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 56.8%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 67.3%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.67

More corners: Leverkusen (65.8% home / 34.2% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Leverkusen

Yes

Probability Leverkusen wins or draws: 77.7%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Leverkusen Clearest lean of the available outcomes (60% vs next-best 21%). (60.0% model probability) High

Both Teams to Score Yes (57.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (67.0% model probability) High

Corners Leverkusen (more corners) (66.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Leverkusen win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (78.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.