← Back to fixtures

Leverkusen vs Hoffenheim

Tue 02 Mar 2027, 00:00 UTC · Round 24 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Leverkusen win: 54.2%

Draw: 22.3%

Hoffenheim win: 23.5%

Predicted: Leverkusen

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 62.1%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 67.0%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.95

More corners: Leverkusen (58.0% home / 42.0% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Leverkusen

Yes

Probability Leverkusen wins or draws: 70.1%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Leverkusen Clearest lean of the available outcomes (54% vs next-best 24%). (54.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (62.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (67.0% model probability) High

Corners Leverkusen (more corners) (58.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Leverkusen win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (70.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.