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M'gladbach vs Union Berlin

Fri 15 Jan 2027, 00:00 UTC · Round 17 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

M'gladbach win: 41.3%

Draw: 28.5%

Union Berlin win: 30.2%

Predicted: M'gladbach

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 61.8%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 60.1%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.52

More corners: Union Berlin (48.4% home / 51.6% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: M'gladbach

Yes

Probability M'gladbach wins or draws: 61.3%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result M'gladbach Clearest lean of the available outcomes (41% vs next-best 30%). (41.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (62.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (60.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat M'gladbach win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (61.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.