← Back to fixtures

M'gladbach vs Mainz

Sat 19 Sep 2026, 13:30 UTC · Round 4 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

M'gladbach win: 42.1%

Draw: 28.8%

Mainz win: 29.1%

Predicted: M'gladbach

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 61.5%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 59.7%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.68

More corners: Mainz (41.7% home / 58.3% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Mainz

Yes

Probability Mainz wins or draws: 61.5%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result M'gladbach Clearest lean of the available outcomes (42% vs next-best 29%). (42.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (62.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (60.0% model probability) High

Corners Mainz (more corners) (58.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Mainz win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (62.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.