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Mainz vs Augsburg

Fri 19 Mar 2027, 00:00 UTC · Round 27 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Mainz win: 43.2%

Draw: 26.7%

Augsburg win: 30.1%

Predicted: Mainz

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 58.5%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 57.8%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.88

More corners: Mainz (59.4% home / 40.6% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Mainz

Yes

Probability Mainz wins or draws: 60.1%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Mainz Clearest lean of the available outcomes (43% vs next-best 30%). (43.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (58.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (58.0% model probability) High

Corners Mainz (more corners) (59.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Mainz win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (60.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.