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Mainz vs Bayern Munich

Fri 06 Nov 2026, 00:00 UTC · Round 9 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Mainz win: 31.5%

Draw: 23.0%

Bayern Munich win: 45.6%

Predicted: Bayern Munich

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 61.1%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 66.9%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.95

More corners: Bayern Munich (31.7% home / 68.3% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Bayern Munich

Yes

Probability Bayern Munich wins or draws: 62.5%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Bayern Munich Clearest lean of the available outcomes (46% vs next-best 32%). (46.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (61.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (67.0% model probability) High

Corners Bayern Munich (more corners) (68.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Bayern Munich win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (62.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.