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Mainz vs Freiburg

Fri 11 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC · Round 13 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Mainz win: 45.5%

Draw: 25.5%

Freiburg win: 29.0%

Predicted: Mainz

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 53.5%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 53.9%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.65

More corners: Mainz (59.9% home / 40.1% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Freiburg

Yes

Probability Freiburg wins or draws: 58.1%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Mainz Clearest lean of the available outcomes (46% vs next-best 29%). (46.0% model probability) Medium

Corners Mainz (more corners) (60.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Freiburg win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (58.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.