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Mainz vs Hamburg

Fri 29 Jan 2027, 00:00 UTC · Round 19 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Mainz win: 48.0%

Draw: 26.3%

Hamburg win: 25.8%

Predicted: Mainz

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 57.3%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 55.2%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.8

More corners: Mainz (59.3% home / 40.7% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Mainz

Yes

Probability Mainz wins or draws: 62.7%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Mainz Clearest lean of the available outcomes (48% vs next-best 26%). (48.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (57.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (55.0% model probability) High

Corners Mainz (more corners) (59.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Mainz win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (63.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.