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Mainz vs Hoffenheim

Tue 12 Jan 2027, 00:00 UTC · Round 16 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Mainz win: 38.9%

Draw: 25.4%

Hoffenheim win: 35.7%

Predicted: Mainz

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 58.7%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 62.1%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.97

More corners: Hoffenheim (41.0% home / 59.0% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Hoffenheim

Yes

Probability Hoffenheim wins or draws: 57.7%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (39.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (59.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (62.0% model probability) High

Corners Hoffenheim (more corners) (59.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Hoffenheim win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (58.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.