← Back to fixtures

Mainz vs M'gladbach

Fri 12 Feb 2027, 00:00 UTC · Round 21 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Mainz win: 49.8%

Draw: 23.3%

M'gladbach win: 26.9%

Predicted: Mainz

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 52.4%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 54.3%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.9

More corners: Mainz (61.5% home / 38.5% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Mainz

Yes

Probability Mainz wins or draws: 59.5%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Mainz Clearest lean of the available outcomes (50% vs next-best 27%). (50.0% model probability) Medium

Corners Mainz (more corners) (62.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Mainz win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (60.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.