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Mainz vs RB Leipzig

Fri 09 Apr 2027, 00:00 UTC · Round 29 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Mainz win: 38.0%

Draw: 25.3%

RB Leipzig win: 36.8%

Predicted: Mainz

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 57.7%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 63.4%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.88

More corners: RB Leipzig (39.7% home / 60.3% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: RB Leipzig

Yes

Probability RB Leipzig wins or draws: 58.2%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (38.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (58.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (63.0% model probability) High

Corners RB Leipzig (more corners) (60.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat RB Leipzig win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (58.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.