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Mainz vs SV Elversberg

Fri 05 Mar 2027, 00:00 UTC · Round 25 · Data confidence: Low (promoted/new team)

Match Result (1X2)

Mainz win: 48.5%

Draw: 18.5%

SV Elversberg win: 33.0%

Predicted: Mainz

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 50.6%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 58.7%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.47

More corners: Mainz (58.2% home / 41.8% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Mainz

Yes

Probability Mainz wins or draws: 52.5%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Mainz Clearest lean of the available outcomes (48% vs next-best 33%). (48.0% model probability) Medium

Total Goals Over 2.5 (59.0% model probability) High

Corners Mainz (more corners) (58.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Mainz win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (52.0% model probability) Medium

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.