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Paderborn vs Freiburg

Sat 05 Sep 2026, 13:30 UTC · Round 2 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Paderborn win: 38.7%

Draw: 23.5%

Freiburg win: 37.8%

Predicted: Paderborn

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 57.6%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 53.1%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.79

More corners: Freiburg (42.3% home / 57.7% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Freiburg

Yes

Probability Freiburg wins or draws: 67.0%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (39.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (58.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Freiburg win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (67.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.