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Paderborn vs Hoffenheim

Sun 20 Sep 2026, 17:30 UTC · Round 4 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Paderborn win: 28.7%

Draw: 25.0%

Hoffenheim win: 46.3%

Predicted: Hoffenheim

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 62.4%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 64.0%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.7

More corners: Hoffenheim (31.4% home / 68.6% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Hoffenheim

Yes

Probability Hoffenheim wins or draws: 69.0%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Hoffenheim Clearest lean of the available outcomes (46% vs next-best 29%). (46.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (62.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (64.0% model probability) High

Corners Hoffenheim (more corners) (69.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Hoffenheim win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (69.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.