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Paderborn vs M'gladbach

Fri 05 Mar 2027, 00:00 UTC · Round 25 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Paderborn win: 40.7%

Draw: 23.6%

M'gladbach win: 35.8%

Predicted: Paderborn

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 57.6%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 53.4%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.8

More corners: M'gladbach (40.9% home / 59.1% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: M'gladbach

Yes

Probability M'gladbach wins or draws: 64.9%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (41.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (58.0% model probability) High

Corners M'gladbach (more corners) (59.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat M'gladbach win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (65.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.