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Paderborn vs Stuttgart

Fri 09 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC · Round 5 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Paderborn win: 34.2%

Draw: 25.3%

Stuttgart win: 40.5%

Predicted: Stuttgart

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 61.0%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 62.0%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.15

More corners: Stuttgart (35.7% home / 64.3% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Stuttgart

Yes

Probability Stuttgart wins or draws: 73.3%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (40.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (61.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (62.0% model probability) High

Corners Stuttgart (more corners) (64.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Stuttgart win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (73.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.