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RB Leipzig vs Borussia Dortmund

Fri 18 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC · Round 14 · Data confidence: Low (promoted/new team)

Match Result (1X2)

RB Leipzig win: 60.2%

Draw: 16.9%

Borussia Dortmund win: 22.9%

Predicted: RB Leipzig

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 51.6%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 63.2%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.37

More corners: RB Leipzig (59.4% home / 40.6% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: RB Leipzig

Yes

Probability RB Leipzig wins or draws: 66.8%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result RB Leipzig Clearest lean of the available outcomes (60% vs next-best 23%). (60.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (63.0% model probability) High

Corners RB Leipzig (more corners) (59.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat RB Leipzig win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (67.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.