← Back to fixtures

RB Leipzig vs Leverkusen

Fri 12 Feb 2027, 00:00 UTC · Round 21 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

RB Leipzig win: 40.9%

Draw: 27.6%

Leverkusen win: 31.6%

Predicted: RB Leipzig

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 64.3%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 71.1%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.99

More corners: RB Leipzig (52.2% home / 47.8% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Leverkusen

Yes

Probability Leverkusen wins or draws: 60.2%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result RB Leipzig Clearest lean of the available outcomes (41% vs next-best 32%). (41.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (64.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (71.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Leverkusen win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (60.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.