← Back to fixtures

Schalke 04 vs Hamburg

Fri 16 Apr 2027, 00:00 UTC · Round 30 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Schalke 04 win: 39.8%

Draw: 23.9%

Hamburg win: 36.3%

Predicted: Schalke 04

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 60.0%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 56.0%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.25

More corners: Hamburg (41.0% home / 59.0% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Hamburg

Yes

Probability Hamburg wins or draws: 65.8%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (40.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (60.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (56.0% model probability) High

Corners Hamburg (more corners) (59.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Hamburg win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (66.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.