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Schalke 04 vs SV Elversberg

Sun 20 Sep 2026, 15:30 UTC · Round 4 · Data confidence: Low (promoted/new team)

Match Result (1X2)

Schalke 04 win: 37.8%

Draw: 16.9%

SV Elversberg win: 45.3%

Predicted: SV Elversberg

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 52.8%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 56.2%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.64

More corners: SV Elversberg (36.1% home / 63.9% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: SV Elversberg

Yes

Probability SV Elversberg wins or draws: 58.3%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (45.0% model probability) Low

Total Goals Over 2.5 (56.0% model probability) High

Corners SV Elversberg (more corners) (64.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat SV Elversberg win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (58.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.