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Stuttgart vs Paderborn

Fri 19 Feb 2027, 00:00 UTC · Round 22 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Stuttgart win: 54.6%

Draw: 22.8%

Paderborn win: 22.7%

Predicted: Stuttgart

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 59.0%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 62.1%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.13

More corners: Stuttgart (65.1% home / 34.9% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Stuttgart

Yes

Probability Stuttgart wins or draws: 73.8%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Stuttgart Clearest lean of the available outcomes (55% vs next-best 23%). (55.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (59.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (62.0% model probability) High

Corners Stuttgart (more corners) (65.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Stuttgart win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (74.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.